Theory on the SS Rolex Shortage

[Baco Noir]

So the shortage of SS Rolex sport models has been persistent for several years now. Prices on the secondary market have skyrocketed. But more than that, I perceive that there is a push towards owning PM Rolexes because of the increase in SS watch costs though the grey dealers. People are saying “well for that price, I can nearly buy XYZ gold Rolex”. Another side effect is that Tudor, who had a bit of a cold launch in the US - was seen as lesser - is not seeing a strong resurgence as a better alternative to paying the premium for hard to get SS sport models from Rolex.

I think this is intentional to push both PM sales (makes Rolex more prestigious again) and Tudor sales. What do you think?

[CHIP]

I have two theories.

1. Rolex is pushing Tudor into the space formerly occupied by SS Rolex, in an attempt to make Rolex an even more luxury brand.

2. I watched a documentary about a year or so ago, and one of the segments was about LV luxury bags and how some of them cost tens of thousands, and have wait lists that stretch into years. However. The most desirable bag was one of their cheapest.
Why? Because you can’t just buy it. It’s a reward bag only sold to those that bought many of the expensive ones. To be seen with the less expensive bag means you spent crazy money on the expensive bags, and the inexpensive one suddenly becomes even more of a status symbol than the $$$$$ bags.

I wonder if that’s what Rolex is doing.

[marinoc81]

Intentional. From a retailer side, (we do not carry Rolex) I think they are forcing PM watches into the stores. AD's have to keep product coming in to continue being a Rolex AD and I think that Rolex is strictly limiting their options on SS pieces. Long term this could hurt them, While they have created a larger demand for SS pieces, I think the demand was already naturally higher for SS. In my opinion it could hurt them, with Tudor not doing so hot.

PM sales are down in US. Trying to help their own PM sales? Bring back more exclusivity? Position Tudor? I think all of that can be argued, maybe a little bit of everything!

[carl]

Admittedly, I try to not think about this issue. And just go merrily along, making myself believe it's simply supply and demand. Just an effort to keep things simple, I still restrict my buying to my local AD. Not only one of my favorite people, along with his crew, but they are all passionate about Rolex. If I am in the market for a certain model, I will order from them with the satisfaction of knowing they will get it for me when they are able. Maybe I am being ignorant, naive, or maybe I am just plain fortunate, but it works for me.

While it is very difficult to ignore this issue, as so many of the threads on any Rolex forum discuss it in one way or another. And I try to stay away from discussing prices, discounts, "What did you pay?" etc. and simply share experiences about various watches. To me, this is the essence of what the forums are about.

Seems like most of the people I am most fond of here are getting the watches they want anyway.

Cheers,
Carl

[Pete]

I asked this same question the other day at my local AD.
He said they get about 7 or 8 SDs in each year.
The demand has skyrocketed worldwide he said.
Rolex is a business and I’m amazed they aren’t making more watches.
I think China is soaking up all the sports models at the moment.

On a side note, while I was there for about an hour they sold three Rolex watches. One gold day date and a couple of very nice ladies watches.
The guy that bought the gold DD was after any sports model he could get his hands on. He was a tourist.
Just had to have a new watch. No appreciation for the brand or the model. He dropped the money for the DD like it was nothing.
On the way back to the car I saw him and his wife again at another AD. He bought a rose gold YM there.

I know it is annoying the hell out of the ADs that second hand dealers are cashing in so well at the moment.
My SD went up 4K in value the minute I left the shop.
Just crazy.

[Pete]

I also heard that there will be a price increase shortly down here too.
My SD was the same price as when it was released back in 2017. I have never seen Rolex wait this long for a price increase.

[Baco Noir]

Yeah the supply/demand curve is way out of whack right now and it’s so annoying.

Also, I think what you saw with the tourist is not uncommon right now. I’ve noticed a big uptick in the speculative buyers on the larger forums in the last 5 years.